ï»ż0000THE EURASIA GROUP RESEARCH FELLOW FROM WASHINGTON. THANKS SO MUCH FOR JOINING US. ASIDE FROM THE HANDSHAKE, CAN YOU RECALL THERE EVER BEING A LOWER AB IN CHINA RELATIONS? > > THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME. I THINK THIS IS ALMOST AN IMPROVEMENT ON WHERE WE WERE IN AUGUST OF LAST YEAR WHEN NANCY PELOSI VISITED TAIWAN. THERE IS A LOT HAPPENING BEHIND THE SCENES OBVIOUSLY BEHIND THE HANDSHAKE. THE CHINESE DEFENSE MINISTER HAS BEEN SHA SANCTIONED BY THE UNITED STATES SINCE 2018. THE HANDSHAKE REFLECTS CHINA'S UNWILLINGNESS TO TALK TO THE UNITED STATES WHEN ONE OF THE HIGH-RANKING OFFICIALS IS STILL BEING SANCTIONED. PAUL WE DID HAVE A NUMBER OF INCIDENTS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WEEKS BUT NOTABLY OVER THE WEEKEND THE CLOSE PATHS BETWEEN A CHINESE WARSHIP. HOW GREAT IS THE RISK OF ESCALATION AND THERE ARE - AND ARE THERE ADEQUATE GUARD RAILS IN PLACE? > > IT IS NOTABLE IT WAS NOT JUST THE UNITED STATES THERE WAS A CANADIAN SHIP TRANSITING WITH UNITED STATES. I DO NOT THINK THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THIS HAS HAPPENED AND WHEN YOU LOOK AT WHAT YOU MIGHT CALL SOME AIRBORNE SHENANIGANS THAT HAVE BEEN GOING ON FOR SOME YEARS, THESE TYPE OF CLOSE PASSES BY CHINESE MILITARY AIRCRAFT AND VESSELS HAVE BEEN PART OF THE ONGOING TENSIONS IN THE REGION. IN TERMS OF GUARD RAILS, I THINK MORE DIALOGUE BETWEEN HIGH-RANKING DEFENSE OFFICIALS IS VITAL. WE HEARD THIS FROM SOME OF THE DEFENSE MINISTERS PARTICULARLY THE SINGAPOREAN DEFENSE MINISTER WHO SAID MORE COMMUNICATION NEEDS TO BE PART OF A SOLUTION TO THE TENSIONS IN THE REGION. BEYOND MORE COMMUNICATION IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE HOW THINGS LIKE THIS CAN BE RESOLVED QUICKLY OR PREVENT THEM FROM ESCALATING INTO MORE INTENSE SITUATIONS. SHERY YOU SAID THERE WAS A LOT HAPPENING BEHIND THE SCENES. WE HAVE HEARD THE CIA DIRECTOR WENT TO BEIJING LAST MONTH. NO ABOUT THE CLIMATE COOPERATIONS. I DO WONDER HOW MUCH DOES THIS HELP AND IS THIS ENOUGH WHEN YOU HAVE AREAS OF HIGH TENSIONS LIKE THE TAIWAN STRAIT? > > THIS IS NOT ENOUGH CERTAINLY. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF A THAW. IT IS NOT JUST THE CIA JAKE SULLIVAN NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR MET WITH HIS CHINESE COUNTERPART IN VALIANT - IN VIENNA SOME WEEKS AGO. JANET YELLEN HAS MET WITH A COUNTERPART. I THINK THERE IS THE PERSPECTIVE OF XI JINPING AND PRESIDENT BIDEN MEETING IN SAN FRANCISCO THIS YEAR AT THE APEC SUMMIT AND THE G20 IN INDIA. THIS IS NOT ENOUGH. I'M NOT SURE IF THERE EVER COULD BE ENOUGH WHEN TWO OF THE GREAT POWERS OF THE WORLD ARE IN THIS ESCALATORY SPIRAL BUT YOU NEED TO TAKE BABY STEPS TO RESTORE TRUST AND BUILD CONFIDENCE AND I THINK BEING AT THE SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE AND ALLOWING FOR OTHER FORMS OF DIALOGUE TO OCCUR THERE AND IN PARALLEL IS A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION TO AVOIDING ANY CONFLAGRATION. BOTH PARTIES KNOW THAT ANY TYPE OF CONFLICT WOULD BE DEVASTATING FOR EVERYONE. CHINA AND UNITED STATES AND EVERYONE IN THE REGION. NOBODY WANTS THAT. SHERY WE HEARD EARLIER FROM RICHARD MARS, THE DEFENSE SECRETARY IN AUSTRALIA. HOW MUCH CAN THESE MIDDLE POWERS INCLUDING NOT JUST AUSTRALIA BUT INDIA AS WELL DO IN HELPING TO THAW THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE AND CHINA? > > I THINK WAY BIT. YOU MENTION INDIA AND AUSTRALIA. I WOULD OFFER JAPAN MIGHT BE THE KEY OR THE LINCHPIN IN THE REGION. JAPAN IS OBVIOUSLY AN AMERICAN ALLY SINCE AFTER WORLD WAR II. IT IS ALSO A MASSIVE TRADING PARTNER WITH CHINA. COUNTRIES LIKE JAPAN, AUSTRALIA, THEY HAVE THESE MILITARY RELATIONSHIPS AND ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIPS WITH THE UNITED STATES BUT THEY ALSO DEPEND HEAVILY ON CHINA FOR TRADE, EXPORT AND IMPORT. IT IS GOING TO BE VITAL FOR COUNTRIES LIKE JAPAN TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE AND WHEN YOU THINK OF THE INDO PACIFIC AND THAT TERM IT IS ABOUT INCLUDING INDIA AS A GROWING POWER. INDIA IS BEGINNING TO EXERT MORE INFLUENCE AND HAS TO EXERT MORE INFLUENCE. IT IS SOON GOING TO BE THE MOST POPULOUS COUNTRY ON EARTH. THE MIDDLE POWERS AND REGIONAL PLAYERS HAVE TO HAVE AGENCY AND LEAD OF THE CONVERSATION ABOUT THE ESCALATING TENSIONS BECAUSE THEY ARE THE ONES THAT WILL SUFFER THE BRUNT OF CONSEQUENCES SHOULD TENSIONS CONTINUE TO SOUR OR A CONFLICT OCCUR. SHERY THE THING ABOUT ASIA IS THERE ARE SO MANY HISTORICAL ISSUES, TERRITORIAL ISSUES. YOU MENTION JAPAN AND WE HAVE THIS ONGOING SPAT WITH SOUTH KOREA. THAT SEEMS TO HAVE IMPROVED BUT HOW MUCH WILL THESE LINGERING CHALLENGES MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO SHOW A UNITED FRONT? > > I THINK THE THAWING IN RELATIONS BETWEEN SOUTH KOREA AND JAPAN IS INDICATIVE OF WHERE THE REGION IS HEADED. EVERYONE IS AWARE, LEADERS ARE AWARE CHINA IS GROWING. CHINA IS EXERTING MORE INFLUENCE. CHINA IS BUILDING ITS MILITARY. THEY HAVE NOW KIND OF A REASON TO ADDRESS POTENTIALLY SMALLER PROBLEMS THAT HAVE BEEN GOING ON FOR A LONG TIME TO KIND OF GET TO A MORE SUSTAINABLE AND PRODUCTIVE REGIONAL BALANCE. ONE OF THE THINGS I THINK ASIAN COUNTRIES, SINGAPORE IN PARTICULAR HAVE BEEN CLEAR ABOUT IS THE ECONOMICS OF THE REGION ARE VITAL. THE AEGEAN - THE FIJI MINISTER SAID GREEN BATTALIONS ARE NOT ACTUALLY THE THREAT TO THEM. IT IS ACTUALLY CLAIMANT CHANGE. - CLIMATE CHANGE. THERE ARE NUMBER OF THREATS PUSHING THESE COUNTRIES TOGETHER ON KIND OF COLLECTIVE ISSUES. I THINK AS THESE COLLECTIVE ISSUES START AMELIORATING WHAT POLITICAL SCIENTISTS CALL THE COLLECTIVE ACTION PROBLEM OR THE UNWILLINGNESS OF COUNTRIES TO WORK TOGETHER TO BEAR THE COST OF WORKING TOGETHER THEStream Schedule BTV+No schedule data available.
. 229 104 288 259 166 88 398 25